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ECONOMIC HEADLINES: Pending No. 1445 – Second-Quarter 2023 GDP just shed the last five years of headline economic growth / Quarterly plunge of 32.9% (-32.9%), and year-to-year drop of 9.5% matched consensus expectations / GDP annual benchmark revisions were small // Covered in No. 1444 – Second-quarter 2023 Real New Orders for Durable Goods plunged an annualized 55% (-55%), down 21.9% (-21.9%) year-to-year / June Cass Freight Index® continued bottom-bouncing, running counter to the “recovered” Retail Sales / June Building Permits and Housing Starts saw some rebound in the month having collapsed respectively at annualized rates of 56% (-56%) and 76% (-76%) in the quarter / Not-credible inflation-adjusted headline June Retail Sales recovered pre-Pandemic levels in a stronger than expected real 6.9% monthly gain (nominal sales gain of 7.5% held just shy of recovery) / Contracting for the third consecutive quarter, second-quarter real Retail Sales fell at a 24.2% (-24.2%) annualized pace / On top of downside revisions, June Industrial Production gained 5.4% in the month, fell 10.8% (-10.8%) year-to-year, with Second-Quarter 2023 activity collapsing at a 42.6% (-42.6%) annualized pace, following a first quarter drop of 6.8% (-6.8%) / Monthly June Consumer Price increase of 0.57% was at an 8-year high, with gasoline prices off bottom and rising food costs / Shortage-driven annual food inflation jumped to a 9-year High / June Producer Prices declined by 0.2% (-0.2%) in the month, thanks to rising gasoline prices and the PPI’s mal-defined, dominant Services Sector

FINANCIAL MARKETS: FOMC Continued to hold its extraordinarily low interest-rate and extreme-liquidity policies in place (July 29th), amidst signs of renewed, slowing economic activity / Exploding Gold and Silver prices reflect mounting, legitimate inflation fears, due to soaring Money Supply growth, uncontained Federal Deficit Spending and related weakening of the U.S. Dollar / Investors buying gold, looking to preserve the purchasing power of their wealth and assets against the ongoing debasement of the U.S. dollar, will tend to hold their gold / Speculative investors will take some profits at some point / Official overt or covert market interventions, and jawboning, to depress Gold prices also likely will unfold / Yet, the speculative profit taking and official interventions should prove fleeting, given the serious inflation risks and severe, underlying dollar-debasement fundamentals (see discussion in No. 1443 and 1444) / In context of the continuing economic turmoil and financial-market vulnerabilities, the July FOMC held Fed Funds targeted at 0.00% to 0.25%, with the most-aggressive ever liquidity and money creation policies continuing in place (see SYSTEMIC RISK) / June 2023 Money Supply (M1, M2 and M3) annual growth surged to record highs; June Financial-Weighted U.S. Dollar turned negative year-to-year (all graphed and detailed on the ALTERNATE DATA tab, linked above)

• L A T E S T .. N U M B E R S .. Second-Quarter 2023 Real GDP Just Lost Five Years of Headline Economic Growth (July 30th, Bureau of Economic Analysis). The Pandemic driven, record annualized quarterly decline of 32.90% (-32.90%) and annual drop of 9.54% (-9.54%) in second-quarter GDP was on top of a first-quarter 4.96% (-4.96%) quarterly drop and annual gain of 0.31%. The near-consensus reporting was in the context of minimal benchmark revisions, which were not credible in the context of recent downside benchmarking to underlying series. Annual growth in real 2023 GDP revised lower by 0.17% (-0.17%), while 2018 picked up 0.07%. That said, the level of inflation-adjusted real GDP in second-quarter 2023 was the lowest since fourth-quarter 2014. Dependent on some successful “reopening” of the economy, third- and fourth-quarter 2023 GDP should be moving off bottom. Extended details follow in No. 1445.

(July 27) Net of Inflation, June 2023 Real New Orders for Durable Goods Gained 7.0% in the Month, Sank 14.1% (-14.1%) Year-to-Year, Boosted by Autos, Hammered by Commercial Aircraft Cancellations (July 27th, Census Bureau). On top of downside revisions to nominal May and April activity, the nominal monthly gain of 7.3% in June Durable Goods orders was spiked by a 51.9% jump in Motor Vehicles and depressed by a 136.4% (-136.4%) plunge in Nondefense Aircraft (reflecting renewed order cancellations). Net of inflation, second-quarter total real New Orders contracted an annualized pace of 55.0% (-55.0%), down 21.9% (21.9%) year-to-year. See No. 1444 for extended review and analysis of this and other recent economic releases.

(July 24, 22) 网游加速器-网游加速器大全-网游加速器专区-华军纯净下载:1970-1-1 · 网游加速器是能够让玩家远离卡顿的游戏，即使在玩国外的游戏时，也能体会到顺畅的网络。 酷跑网游加速器 版本： 2.9.20.417 官方版 大小： 11.83MB 语言： 简体中文 内容简介： 酷跑网游加速器是一款针对网游开发的，高稳定性的游戏加速器。 (New-Home Sales - NHS, Census / Existing-Home Sales - EHS, National Association of Realtors® [NAR] at www.nar.realtor – (see NAR Press Release). As usual, in the context of regularly extreme monthly volatility and massive revisions, both the 13.8% monthly and 6.9% annual gains in June 2023 New-Home Sales (Census) were not statistically meaningful at the 95% confidence interval, with NHS still holding shy of ever recovering its peak pre-Great Recession activity by 44.1% (-44.1%). Second-quarter 2023 NHS contracted at an annualized pace of 11.6% (-11.6%), up by 2.4% year-to-year. The more-stable June 2023 Existing-Home Sales (NAR) jumped 20.7% in the month, down by 11.3% (-11.3%) year-to-year. Second-quarter 2023 EHS contracted at an annualized pace of 61.5% (-61.5%), down 18.4% (-18.4%) year-to-year.

(July 16) Consistent With Bottom–Bouncing Manufacturing, but Running Counter to “Booming” Retail Sales, the June 2023 Cass Freight Index® plunged Year-to-Year by 17.8% (-17.8%), Still Shy of Exceeding Its Record 25.0% (-25.0%) Great Recession Trough of April 2009. (CassInfo.com, see the updated reporting at http://www.cassinfo.com/freight-audit-payment/cass-transportation-indexes/june-2023). The Pandemic-driven economic collapse continued to hit the June 2023 Cass Freight Index® hard, with annual declines in freight activity bouncing at Great Recession depths. The Cass Index’s consecutive monthly year-to-year declines and deepening month-to-month declines in the 12-month trailing average held in place for the 19th straight month. Those year-to-year and 12-month-moving-average metrics neutralize seasonality in this unadjusted series. ShadowStats regularly follows and analyzes the Cass Index as a highest-quality coincident and leading indicator of underlying economic reality. We thank Cass for their permission to graph and to use their numbers in our Commentaries.

(July 17) Bottom-Bouncing Monthly Gains Picked Up in June 2023 New Residential Construction, in the Context of Pandemic-Savaged Second-Quarter Collapses (Census). June Building Permits and Housing Starts respectively showed statistically meaningful monthly gains of 2.1% and 17.3% (90% confidence intervals) with annual declines of 2.5% (-2.5%) and 4.0% (-4.0%), on top of respective downside and upside revisions to May activity. Pummeled by the Pandemic shutdown of the economy, respective second-quarter Permits and Starts collapsed at annualized quarterly paces of 56.2% (-56.2%) and 75.6% (-75.6%), against a first-quarter decline in Permits of 12.0% (-12.0%) and a first quarter gain in Starts of 15.2%. Both series held shy of ever recovering their pre-Great Recession peak levels respectively by 45.2% (-45.2%) and 47.8% (-47.8%).

(July 16) Not-Credible June 2023 Real Retail Sales Recovered February 2023 Pre-Pandemic Levels, With an Inflation-Adjusted 6.9% Monthly Jump (Census). Although real retail sales recovered its pre-Pandemic level, nominal sales remained shy by 0.6% (-0.6%) of doing so. CPI-U inflation-adjusted June Real Retail Sales gained 6.9% [nominal 7.5%] in the month, turning positive year-to-year by 0.4% [nominal 1.1%], following an upwardly revised 18.2% [previously 17.7%] real monthly gain in May. April’s headline 73-year record monthly plunge of 15.8% (-15.8%) was revised to 14.0% (-14.0%). Yet, annualized real quarterly growth contracted for the third consecutive quarter, having been in a pre-Pandemic downturn, contracting by 0.7% (-0.7%) in the fourth-quarter 2023 Holiday Shopping Season, followed by Pandemic-induced drops of 9.6% (-9.6%) in first-quarter 2023 and 24.2% (-24.2%) in the second-quarter.

(July 15) Quarterly Industrial Production Plunge of 42.6% (-42.6%) Was Worst Since the Post World War II Production Shutdown (Federal Reserve Board - FRB). On top of downside revisions to May activity, June 2023 Production gained 5.41% and Manufacturing 7.25%, with Mining down by 2.90% (-2.90%) in the month. Year-to-year Production, Manufacturing and Mining showed respective annual declines of 10.82% (-10.82%), 11.16% (-11.16%) and 16.89% (16.89%), with annualized Second-Quarter 2023 declines of 42.6% (-42.6%), 47.0% (-47.0%) and 42.7% (-42.7%) on top of the quarterly drops in First-Quarter 2023. Mining was hit by the Oil Price War, with continued plunging oil and gas extraction and drilling. There has been some limited boost to Gold Mining from higher gold prices. Although usually randomly volatile, Utilities declined by 27.1% (-27.1%) in the quarter, likely due to the economic shutdown. Separately, the FRB announced a major downside revision to estimated Capacity Utilization for 2023, with negative implications for GDP reporting.

(Jul 14) Inflation Is on the Rise - June 2023 Consumer Price Index Monthly Rebound of 0.6% Was Strongest Since August 2012, First Monthly Gain in Four Months (Bureau of Labor Statistics - BLS). Beginning to recover from the oil-price-war collapsed gasoline prices, headline monthly gasoline inflation jumped 12.3% in June, with the annual decline narrowing by 10 percentage points to 23.4% (-23.4%). Still driven by shortages, Food prices jumped by 4.54% year-to-year, the most since December 2011, up by 3.19% since the initial February Coronavirus impact. To the extent there is continuing stabilization in gasoline prices, CPI inflation should continue to rise, with gains now seen in each of the Food, Energy and “Core” sectors. Separately, June Real Average Weekly Earnings growth declined by 2.2% (-2.2%) in the month, having eased 0.1% (-0.1%) in May and having gained 4.2% in April, still warped by gyrating heavy layoffs and some rehiring of lower paid hourly workers.

Green网络加速器 - SDK.CN - 中国领先的开发者服务平台:Green网络加速器 VPN 进入官网 收藏 同类工具投票(0) 谁在用(0) 资讯(0) 为什么使用Green网络加速器: 暂无开发者分享,快添加一个~ 添加 功能特点... The ShadowStats estimate restates current headline inflation so as to reverse the government’s inflation-reducing gimmicks of recent decades. Related graphs and methodology are available to all on the ALTERNATE DATA tab above, also accessible by clicking on the mini-graph below. Subscriber-only data downloads and an inflation calculator also are available there.

(July 10) June 2023 Producer Price Index-Final Demand (PPI-FD) Returned to Its Regular Nonsense Reporting, Declining Month-to-Month and Year-to-Year Due to Surging Gasoline Prices (BLS). With Food prices reversing May’s surge, and Gasoline prices continuing to rise, the PPI-FD Goods sector inflation rose 0.18% in the month, versus 1.63% in May, with annual prices down by a narrowed 2.59% (-2.59%) versus 3.26% (-3.26%) in May. The dominant, mal-defined Services Sector (measures profit margins, not prices) declined in the month, due to rising gasoline prices, pulling down the aggregate monthly PPI-FD by a nonsensical 0.17% (-0.17%), by 0.76% (-0.76%) year-to-year.

(July 2) Quality and Credibility Issues Continued to Plague “Improving” Headline Labor Data (BLS). Detailed in Nos. 1442 and 1439, revamped methodologies and seasonal adjustments, and major Pandemic disruptions to conducting the monthly BLS Payroll Employment and Household surveys raise meaningful questions as to the credibility of the current reporting. Consider that the level of response to the June Household Survey (unemployment) was down to 65% from a normal 83%. Headline U.3 unemployment dropped to 11.10% in June from 13.26% in May, yet the BLS still counted 1.9 million unemployed as “employed,” an improvement from the 4.9 million headline misclassified people in May. The difference is that the 11.1% in June really was 12.3%, down from 13.3% (really 16.4%) in May. Headline June payrolls also improved, gaining an even 4.800 million jobs, versus an upwardly revised May gain of 2.699 [previously 2.509] million, and a revised April crash of 20.787 (-20.787) million, [previously 20.687 (-20.687)].

Using the headline unemployment rates, which the BLS acknowledges are understated, Household Survey U.3 unemployment narrowed to 11.10% in June from 13.25% in May, U.6 was 18.03%, down from 21.19%, with the headline ShadowStats Alternate Measure, on top of U.6, at 31.2%, down from 34.0%, as graphed and detailed on the ALTERNATE DATA tab, linked above.

(July 2) The May 2023 Merchandise Trade Deficit Widened Sharply for the Third Month, Amidst Collapsing Global Trade Activity (Census, Bureau of Economic Analysis - BEA). Consider that nominal May U.S. exports plunged year-to-year by a record 35.3% (-35.3%), while imports plunged by 24.6% (-24.6%). Those annual declines suggest not only the extraordinary magnitude of the global economic downturn, the sharp deterioration trending in the second-quarter U.S. trade deficit also should take a sharp bite out of second-quarter U.S. GDP (see No. 1442).

• S Y S T E M I C .. R I S K - Ongoing ShadowsStats Outlook: Economic and Systemic Crashes Should Intensify, Moving Towards a Hyperinflationary Economic Collapse. Economic, FOMC, financial-market, political and social circumstances continue to evolve along with the Pandemic, but the broad outlook has not changed. Systemic turmoil is just beginning, with the Fed and U.S. Government driving uncontrolled U.S. dollar creation, with annual Money Supply growth soaring to successive record highs (see the green加速器下载官网 and extended discussion in Special Hyperinflation Commentary, Issue No. 1438, 1440, 1442 and 1444).

The July FOMC Reconfirmed That Its Extraordinarily Expansive, Accommodative Money Policies, and Its Fed Funds Targeted Rate of 0.00% to 0.25%, Will Continue for the Duration of the Pandemic-Driven Economic Collapse. At his July FOMC press conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reconfirmed existing FOMC policies, and noted that the Fed had seen indications of renewed economic slowdown in June, while reconfirming that second-quarter 2023 GDP likely faced its deepest quarterly contraction in history. That said, the consensus economic outlook also appears to have deteriorated some since the June FOMC (see No. 1444).

SHADOWSTATS ALERT: In context of the evolving Coronavirus Pandemic and related or exacerbating crises, near-term financial-market risks from negative economic, liquidity and political issues, are exacerbated by potential Hyperinflation, long viewed by ShadowStats as the ultimate fate of the U.S. Dollar [see Nos. 1438, 1440 and 1444]. That said, the ShadowStats broad outlook in the weeks and months ahead continues for: (1) A continuing, rapidly deepening (potentially hyperinflationary) U.S. economic collapse, reflected in (2) Continued flight to safety in precious metals, with accelerating upside pressures on gold and silver prices, (3) Mounting selling pressure on the U.S. dollar, against the Swiss Franc, and (4) Despite recent extreme Stock Market volatility, continuing high risk of major instabilities and heavy stock-market selling, complicated by ongoing direct, supportive market interventions arranged by the U.S. Treasury Secretary, as head of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets (a.k.a. the “Plunge Protection Team”), or as otherwise gamed by the FOMC.

• P O S T I N G .. S C H E D U L E S .. SHADOWSTATS CONCURRENT ANALYSES OF NEW DATA: June 2023 Construction Spending (Census) will publish Monday, August 3rd at 10:00 a.m. ET. ShadowStats analysis should post by 1:00 p.m. ET.

SHADOWSTATS COMMENTARIES (Subject to Change): Flash Commentary, Issue No. 1445 should post by August 3rd, covering initial second-quarter GDP reporting and annual revisions, along with an expanded discussion of mounting inflation risks. Commentary postings are advised to Subscribers by e-mail, along with appropriate links.

• ARCHIVES - VIEWING EARLIER COMMENTARIES. ShadowStats postings of April 2023 and before - back to 2004 - are open to all, accessible by clicking on “Archives,” at the bottom of the left-hand column of this ShadowStats homepage.

• ALTERNATE DATA TAB provides the latest headline data, exclusive ShadowStats Alternate Estimates and related Graphs of Inflation, GDP, Unemployment, Money Supply, and the ShadowStats Financial-Weighted U.S. Dollar.